A few stray thoughts, some point of views………and a pessimistic observation.
The victory of Modi is a foregone conclusion. The issue of debate is only the margin of victory, its implications for the nation in general and Gujarat in particular. I present here the future in simple terms without loading my arguments with statistical data.
A possible scenario:
If Modi wins big the Muslim minority in Gujarat (save the already rich trading Muslim communities which are exceptions) would be further pushed into oblivion. It would find life difficult and often miserable for itself. Helplessness and frustration would force it to resign to fate. Time to time Modi would throw some odds and bits before them for RSS propaganda and public consumption. But, from now onwards, they have to struggle much harder for their survival. In past Congress has done nothing for Indian Muslims except lip service. A fleeting remark about their pathetic plight in P.M. Manmohan Singh’s address was all that it could do for them. Congress failed to take up a principled stand in Gujarat. This party wants people like Modi to remain vibrant. It makes easier for Congress to project itself as the protector of minorities. Ironically, Congress would remain a mute spectator while RSS would force apartheid in the states where it rules. Indian National Congress has destroyed our economy, our language, our culture and our identity. New circumstances would put the minorities between the devil and deep sea. The Urdu poet has said:
“Na tarapne ki ijazat hai na faryad ki hai,
ghut ke mar jayen yeh marzi mere sayyad ki hai.”
December 20 is also going to change the internal equations of BJP and the Saffron House for ever. A big electoral victory would catapult Modi into the central stage of Bharat. Modi would become the supreme leader. BJP and its leaders would be compelled to act as subservient to Modi’s dictates. The present cadre of leadership would have no control over the developing situations.
Undoubtedly, his towering personality has made him the pivot of every activity in Gujarat. He is able to attract the powerful rich investors, considerable middle class, media and film stars to bolster his aspirations and establish him as an undisputed leader. He is unstoppable. Consequently, RSS would no longer be in the driving seat. He would play politics on his own terms which is something unusual and contrary to RSS history and discipline. His march towards Delhi would begin on Dec 20, 2012.
Now, here is the rest of the story.
Mulayam, Mamta and Maya would find it difficult to opt for Modi as they also need the Muslim votes for their survival. With Modi at the helm of affairs, BJP would find it difficult to forge new alliances.
With the departure of Mr. Yedurappa from Karnataka BJP, Saffron Brigade has lost a powerful leader who had opened accounts of BJP in South India. Karnataka is about to slip from its stronghold. The results of Hills do not augur well for BJP. Defeat in Hills is almost certain as its victory in Gujarat. Mr. Gadkari, the present president of BJP has effectively become a liability for the party. The longer he sits at the top the more BJP is going to lose face.
The convincing victory of Modi would leave BJP with no choice but to present him as the BJP’s Prime Ministrial candidate. And lo ! here comes the Guardian’s knot. Nitish Kumar will never accept Modi. He finds himself a suitable candidate for the prime minister chair. Mr. Nitish is obviously more acceptable to coalition partners even now. Mulayam, Mamta and Maya would find it difficult to opt for Modi as they also need the Muslim votes for their survival. With Modi at the helm of affairs, BJP would find it difficult to forge new alliances. The cultivation of new relationships would be an uphill task as the choice is limited. The time is running out.
Ultimately, the victory of Narendra Modi in Gujarat would be a Waterloo for BJP ambitions in Delhi.